Can Target Stock Rebound?

With shares of Target (NYSE:TGT) trading around $59, is TGT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Target operates general stores in the United States as well as online, where it sells merchandise at discounted prices. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail, U.S. Credit Card, and Canadian. Target's online presence is designed to enable consumers to purchase products either online or by locating items in one of its stores with the aid of online research and location tools. Groceries, clothing, household items, and general merchandise can be found at Target, making it an efficient shopping experience for consumers throughout the nation.

Target will end health insurance for part-time employees in April, joining Trader Joe's Co., Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) and other U.S. retailers that have scaled back benefits in response to changes from Obamacare. About 10 percent of part-time employees, defined as those working fewer than 30 hours a week, use Target's health plans now, according to a posting yesterday on the Minneapolis-based company's website.

Target is the second-largest U.S. discount retailer by sales and had about 361,000 total employees last fiscal year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is the largest regulatory overhaul of healthcare since the 1960s, creating a system of penalties and rewards to encourage people to obtain medical insurance. The law known as Obamacare doesn't require most companies to cover part-time workers, and offering them health plans may disqualify those people from subsidies in new government-run insurance exchanges that opened in October.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Weak

Target stock has been pulling back over the last couple of months. The stock is currently trading sideways and may need time to stabilize before heading higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Target is trading below its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Target options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
Target options	19.27%	36%	34%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
February Options	Steep	Average
March Options	Steep	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Target’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Target look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	-43.75%	-10.38%	-25.96%	0.81%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	1.95%	2.01%	-0.95%	6.76%
Earnings Reaction	-3.45%	-3.60%	-4.01%	-1.45%

Target has seen decreasing earnings and increasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had mixed feelings about Target’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Target stock done relative to its peers, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS), and sector?

	Target	Wal-Mart	Costco	Kohl’s	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	-6.73%	-4.38%	-4.17%	-8.79%	-5.01%

Target has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Target operates discount general stores across North America where consumers continue to enjoy their shopping experience. The company will end health insurance for part-time employees in April. The stock has been pulling back over the last couple of months and is currently trading sideways. Over the last four quarters, investors in the company have had conflicting feelings, as earnings have been decreasing while revenues have been rising. Relative to its peers and sector, Target has been an average year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Target does the rest of this quarter.